Global apparent steel use will
increase by 3.6 per cent to
1,422 million tonnes in 2012
according to World Steel
Association (worldsteel), following
growth of 5.6 per cent in 2011.
World steel demand will grow by
4.5 per cent to around 1,486 million
tonnes in 2013.
"Despite the market weakening
in the fourth quarter of 2011,
world steel demand achieved
solid growth of 5.6 per cent in
2011 due to the recovery momentum
seen in the first half of the
year. Though we saw a series of
negative events in 2011 (including
Japan's earthquake, political
turmoil in MENA and flooding in
Thailand), their impact proved to
be contained mostly locally,”
Hans Juergen Kerkhoff, Chairman,
worldsteel Economics Committee,
has said.
“The exception was the euro
zone debt crisis which did have
global impact and is the main
cause behind the deterioration in
this new forecast from our previous
one issued in October 2011.
Signs of stability are now emerging
and we expect the recovery to
resume in the second half of this
year, leading to a higher growth
forecast for 2013," Hans Juergen
Kerkhoff added.
China: China's apparent steel
use is expected to increase by 4
per cent to 648.8 million tonnes in
2012, and an identical measure in
2013, as compared to 6.2 per cent
in 2011. India is expected to
resume its high growth trend
(after a sluggish performance in
2011). In 2012, India's steel use is
forecast to grow by 6.9 per cent to
reach 72.5 million tonnes. The
growth rate is forecast to accelerate
to 9.4 per cent in 2013 on the
back of urbanisation and surging
infrastructure investment.
Americas: Apparent steel use in
the US is forecast to grow 5.7 per
cent in 2012. In 2013, the steel use
in the US will probably grow by
5.6 per cent to 99.5 million tonnes,
bringing it to 92 per cent of the
pre-crisis 2007 level.
In Central and South America,
apparent steel use is predicted to
grow by 6.8 per cent in 2012, with
Brazil returning to a positive
growth of over 5 per cent. In 2013,
the region's apparent steel use
is anticipated to grow by 6.7
per cent to reach 52.5 million
tonnes, 28 per cent higher than
the 2007 level.
European Union: The recovery
of steel demand is expected to stall
in most of the EU in 2012 as the
sovereign debt problems continue
to act as a major drag on economic
activities in the area, but with
some differentiated pictures
across the regions. In particular,
the financially troubled countries
of the region are expected to see
their apparent steel use decline
further. Overall, apparent steel
use in the EU is envisaged to slide
by 1.2 per cent to 150.9 million
tonnes in 2012, but a modest
recovery of 3.3 per cent is expected
in 2013. These projections will
bring steel demand in the EU to
155.8 Mt in 2013, only 79 per cent
of the 2007 level.
Japan: Japan's steel use is
expected to decline by 0.6 per cent
to 63.7 million tonnes in 2012 due
to the impact of exchange rate
appreciation, despite the reconstruction
efforts following the
March 2011 earthquake. In 2013
apparent steel use in the country
is forecast to decline by 2.2 per
cent to 62.3 million tonnes, which
is 77 per cent of the 2007 level.
CIS: In the CIS, apparent steel
use is estimated to grow by 4.1 per
cent in 2012 and 5.1 per cent in
2013. Steel demand in the MENA
region will likely rebound to 5.7
per cent in 2012, over a 2.0 per
cent drop in 2011 due to the
impact of the political turmoil in
the region. The expansion rate in
steel use in MENA is forecast to
accelerate to 8.4 per cent in 2013.
These projections will bring the
region's apparent steel use to 68.5
million tonnes in 2013. This is a
record for the region and 26 per
cent over the 2007 level.
Worldsteel forecast suggests
that by 2013, steel use in the
developed world will still be 14
per cent below the 2007 level
whereas in the emerging and
developing economies, it will be
45 per cent higher. In 2013, the
emerging and developing
economies will account for
around 72 per cent of world steel
demand in contrast to 61 per cent
in 2007.
In the meantime, world crude
steel production during the first
four months of 2012 was placed at
505 million tonnes, indicative of a
near-stagnation at year-ago level.
China produced 235 million
tonnes and India 24 million
tonnes during January-April
2012. The crude steel capacity
utilisation ratio for the 62 countries
in April remained nearly
unchanged at 81.1 per cent of
March, but showed 1.7 percentage
points decline compared to
April 2011.
The World Steel Association
(worldsteel) represents approximately
170 steel producers
(including 17 of the world's 20
largest steel companies), national
and regional steel industry associations,
and steel research institutes.
worldsteel members produce
around 85 per cent of the
world's steel.
Untitled Document
APPARENT STEEL USE FORECAST |
|
ASU (million tonnes) |
Growth Rates (%) |
Regions |
2011 |
2012 (f) |
2013 (f) |
2011 |
2012 (f) |
2013 |
| European Union |
152.8 |
150.9 |
155.8 |
5.4 |
-1.2 |
3.3 |
| Other Europe |
33.0 |
35.0 |
37.2 |
11.3 |
6.2 |
6.1 |
| CIS |
54.0 |
56.2 |
59.1 |
12.1 |
4.1 |
5.1 |
| NAFTA |
121.2 |
127.5 |
134 |
9.0 |
5.2 |
5.1 |
| Central & South America |
46.0 |
49.1 |
52.5 |
1.9 |
6.8 |
6.7 |
| Africa |
22.7 |
25.1 |
28.2 |
-8.5 |
10.9 |
12.2 |
| Middle East |
48.1 |
49.8 |
53.0 |
2.7 |
3.5 |
6.4 |
| Asia & Oceania |
895.5 |
928.6 |
966.0 |
5.3 |
3.7 |
4 |
| World |
1,373.3 |
1,422.3 |
1,485.7 |
5.6 |
3.6 |
4.5 |
| Of which |
| Developed Economies |
393.3 |
397.5 |
408.5 |
5.5 |
1.1 |
2.8 |
| Emerging & Developing Economies |
980 |
1,024.9 |
1,077.1 |
5.6 |
4.6 |
5.1 |