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Losing credibility due to Revisions
DR. M.S. KAPADIA
Wednesday, April 25, 2012, 11:52 Hrs  [IST]

The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) increased by 4.1 per cent in February, against 1.1 per cent in January, 2.5 per cent two months back, and 6.7 per cent a year ago. The first revision in January IIP saw a steep decline in the rate from 6.8 per cent, released initially under quick estimates, while a similar revision for December last witnessed a rise from 1.8 per cent.

Mining was up by 2.1 per cent, ending the previous six months of decline, and power generation increased by 8 per cent, over 6.8 per cent a year ago. Manufacturing slowed to 4 per cent from 7.5 per cent a year ago, though the rate indicated an improvement from a drastically downward revision of 1.4 per cent (8.5 per cent) in January.

Taking a slightly longer period that should even out monthly aberrations, aggregate IIP was up by 3.5 per cent during April-February 2011-12, less than half the rate a year ago. Mining eroded by 2.1 per cent (increase of 5.8 per cent) and manufacturing retarded to 3.7 per cent (8.7 per cent), even as power generation increased by a record high of 8.7 per cent (5.3 per cent).

Among the 22 major industries with two-digit classification, seven declined over April-February 2011-12. These industries account for two-fifths of manufacturing. Five industries accounting for a fifth of manufacturing increased at double-digit rates, while the remaining 10 industries accounting for two-fifth share expanded at less than 10 per cent. Going into more details, we find that out of 268 DIPP monitored industries, 105 sagged while 163 could increase the production on a y-o-y basis.

Investment goods ended six months of y-o-y decline, with 10.6 per cent increase in output in February, even as the increase was over a decline a year ago. Cumulatively, capital goods showed 1.8 per cent decline, against 15 per cent increase during this period in the earlier year. Around 29 out of 70 investment goods declined annually during the first 11 months of FY12, whereas 41 reported increase; of this, 24 achieved double-digit expansion. Among the other investment goods, cement production grew 6.4 per cent (4.3 per cent) and steel production 6.8 per cent (9.2 per cent).

Basic goods maintained the year-ago rate of 5.9 per cent, even as intermediate goods declined during April-February 2011-12. Seven out of 24 basic goods and 25 out of 63 intermediate goods declined during the first 11 months of 2011-12.

Consumer durables expanded 2.7 per cent, a fifth of the year ago rate. Eighteen out of 42 consumer durables posted y-o-y drop in production. Consumer non-durables grew 6.5 per cent (3.5 per cent). Twenty-six out of 69 consumer non-durables posted decline, even as 22 achieved double-digit increase in production.

Untitled Document
INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (Y-O-Y % INCREASE)

February
April-February

2011
2012
2010-11
2011-12
Mining 1.2 2.1 5.8 -2.1
Manufacturing 7.5 4.0 8.7 3.7
Electricity 6.8 8.0 5.3 8.7
Overall IIP 6.7 4.1 8.1 3.5
Use-based classification
Basic goods 5.5 7.5 5.9 5.9
Capital goods -5.7 10.6 14.7 -1.8
Intermediate goods 6.3 -0.6 7.8 -0.9
Consumer goods 13.4 -0.2 8.1 4.8
Consumer durables 18.2 -6.7 14.1 2.7
Consumer non-durables 9.7 5.1 3.5 6.5
 
                 
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