Hopefully, reflecting some revival in project investment, the ERIL Index of Cost of Project Inputs, the composite project cost index, has inched up for the second month in October, progressing further into positive growth zone. Earlier, the ERIL Index had remained in negative zone during April-August period in the ongoing fiscal. The cumulative increase of 0.6 per cent over April-October in the project cost index is, nevertheless, a third of the rate in the corresponding period of 2012-13.

Among the major investment goods categories, price realisations seem to have improved in electrical machinery, wires and cables, automobiles and auto parts, apart from structural clay products like marbles and bricks and tiles, though cement and iron and semis prices were running lower.

The WPI of manufactured products that technically sets the pace for project investment also has been on the uptrend since around August, with cumulative rise scaling up to around 2 per cent by October, against 0.9 per cent till August. The ERIL Index measures the overall project cost escalation in terms of WPI of material inputs relevant in project execution.

ERIL INDEX OF COST OF PROJECT INPUTS: OCTOBER 2013
Wholesale Price Index: 2004-05=100
 
Index
Increase (%) During
Increase Since March (%)
 
 
2013/12
2012/11
2013
2012
Non-metallic Mineral Products
164.7
6.9
6.6
-1.3
3.7
Structural Clay Products
175.3
0.2
4.4
4.6
2.4
Cement & Lime
164.8
-3.2
8.1
-4.4
4.4
Basic Metals, Alloys & Metal Products
164.1
-1.5
6.3
-0.4
2.0
Ferrous Metals
154.0
-1.5
6.1
-0.5
1.0
Non-ferrous Metals
164.0
1.7
2.5
1.5
1.9
Machinery & Machine Tools
131.6
2.3
2.6
1.7
1.7
Industrial Machinery
149.7
2.5
2.7
1.4
1.2
Construction Machinery
136.2
-0.1
3.4
-0.4
3.3
Air-Conditioners & Refrigerators
116.9
3.5
3.1
2.8
2.6
Non-electrical Machinery
123.9
0.7
1.5
0.6
0.3
Electrical Machinery & Batteries
136.7
2.7
1.9
1.9
1.7
Electrical Accessories, Wires & Cables
149.9
4.2
4.0
3.5
2.7
Transport Equipment & Parts
135.7
4.1
4.3
2.6
3.1
Automotives
135.5
4.6
4.4
2.9
3.1
Auto Parts
133.3
2.0
4.1
1.5
2.9
Composite ERIL Index for Project Inputs
148.2
0.7
4.9
0.6
2.3
Overall WPI
180.3
7.0
7.3
6.0
4.7

Trends in October
The aggregate wholesale price index for basic metals, alloys and metal products rose by 0.6 per cent during the month due to higher price of ferrochrome (5per cent), sheets (4 per cent), silver (3 per cent), steel castings (2 per cent) and HRC, ferromanganese, melting scrap, pressure cooker, ferrosilicon, furniture, CRC, and steel pipes and tubes (1 per cent each). However, the price of wire rods and pipes, tubes, rods and strips declined by 1 per cent.

The combined WPI for machinery and machine tools increased by 0.4 per cent due to higher price of battery dry cells (9 per cent), electric motors (3 per cent), chemical plant equipment, UPS/stabilisers, and air-conditioners and refrigerators (2 per cent each), and capacitors, batteries, TV sets and electric switchgears (1 per cent each). However, the prices of TV accessories declined by 5 per cent, conductors by 3 per cent, and fiber optic cables and lamps by 2 per cent each.

The total WPI for transport, equipment and parts was up by 1.2 per cent during the month due to 4 per cent price rise in auto rickshaws, tempos and matadors, 2 per cent in motorcycles, scooters, mopeds, motor vehicles and railway axles and wheels, and 1 per cent in bicycles.


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