The proposed $2.5 billion gas pipeline project will transport up to 30 billion cubic metres of natural gas annually from the Dauletabad fields in south-east Turkmenistan to consumers in Afghanistan, Pakistan and, possibly, India. From Turkmenistan to Multan the project is estimated to cost $1.9 billion and its extension to New Delhi another $600 million. 
The Dauletabad field is one of the largest gas fields in the world with proven gas reserve of 100 trillion cubic feet. The field's resources are adequate for project needs and the Government of Turkmenistan has guaranteed deliverability of 25 trillion cubic feet (709 billion cubic metres) of natural gas exclusively for this project.
The completion of the project is easier said than done. It may be difficult to find a ready financier for the project. Unocal's withdrawal was the greatest setback for the project. India is yet to make its intentions clear, especially as some of the problems associated with the Iran-India pipeline project are also relevant in this case. For instance, in both projects the pipeline has to pass through Pakistan. 

On the positive side, ADB is taking keen interest in the project. Two critical issues are currently being tackled—security (of the pipeline) and availability (of gas). The security may be ensured by getting a third party to guard the pipeline. Given Afghanistan's volatility, Kabul has promised security for the pipeline passing through its territory. Besides, Turkmenistan has assured that the Dauletabad gas field would be committed to the project. 
Some other recent developments also indicate that the countries involved (i.e. Pakistan, Afghanistan and Turkmenistan) are serious about the project. According to Pakistan's Minister for Petroleum Amanullah Khan Jadoon, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Turkmenistan would meet in July in Ashgabat, the capital of Turkmenistan and work on the pipeline could begin by the end of the year. New Delhi has added one more dimension to the project by stating that the pipeline could become viable only when it is extended to Uzbekistan and onwards to India. Thus, by all indications TAP may be converted into UTAPI (Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India). 

India-Iran gas pipeline
The India-Iran gas pipeline project was originally conceived in 1989. The project involves laying a 2,500-km pipeline between India and Iran via Pakistan, passing through Pakistan. Of this, 1,000 km will be in Iran, 800 km in Pakistan and 700 km in India. If the project materialises it will be a win-win situation for all three countries. For Iran, there will be assured demand for its gas and the 1,000-km long pipeline will entail huge investment; Pakistan will get an annual revenue of $400-500 million in terms of transit fee; India will be assured of regular supply of gas through the pipeline resulting in savings of around $300 million. The cost of the project is to be borne between Iran, Pakistan and India in the ratio of 48:32:20. 
Despite the inherent benefits of the pipeline project for all the parties, it has failed to make much headway mainly because of hostility between India and Pakistan. As an alternative, India proposed a deep-sea pipeline skirting Pakistan altogether. However, this route is far too expensive (costing a staggering $6 billion) besides the lack of adequate technology. Another proposal was to lay the pipeline through shallow sea in Pakistan's territorial waters. But, Pakistan is not in favour of this route. As a result, the land route is the only possible way to transport gas from Iran to India. There is yet another option, though: Importing gas from Iran in the form of LNG, which would be slightly costlier than the land route. This proposal can be considered entirely independent of importing gas through pipeline.
As matters stand, the India-Iran gas pipeline project is facing hurdles. The security of gas supply through Pakistan territory is a major concern in the development of the project. In addition, issues such as pipeline route and off take location, delivered gas price and quality, transit fee and appropriate sovereign guarantees also need to be sorted out. Even if these issues are resolved, funding the project could face problems because of America's Iran-Libya Sanction Act of 1995. This Act prohibits foreign investments above $20 million in Iran. But then, countries like France, UK and Russia have often flouted this provision. More recently, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice urged India not to go ahead with the pipeline because it would enhance the earnings of Iran, which, America suspects, is developing nuclear arms. Although India has not responded to the arm-twisting, the US is also putting pressure on Pakistan to pull out of the project.
Meanwhile, several measures have been suggested to ensure the safety of the pipeline as well as transportation of gas. Union Minister for Petroleum and Natural Gas Mani Shankar Aiyar has suggested that the pipeline to India be routed through Pakistan's north-western coastline as it is heavily populated and can be guarded against terrorist attacks. Also, extending the pipeline to China can reduce the chances of Pakistan switching off the taps in times of hostilities. The China dimension to the project is a recent one but it would prolong implementation. On the other hand, Iran has suggested handing over the ownership and operation of the pipeline to an international consortium of bankers and oil companies that could reduce the probability (if not prevent) sabotage by extremists in Pakistan. Yet another proposal is to base the taps only in Iran and India, out of reach of Pakistan. 
Recent signs of improvement in bilateral ties between India and Pakistan have rekindled hope for the project. During Petroleum Minister Aiyar's visit to Tehran last December, issues relating to a possible pipeline were flagged. The matter was further discussed with the Iranian minister on the sidelines of the Asian Oil Ministers' meet held in New Delhi in January. After Cabinet clearance on February 9, 2005, techno-commercial discussions were initiated on the margins of the 3rd Asian Gas Buyers' Summit in New Delhi on February 14-15, 2005. Now it is hoped that Aiyar will sign an agreement with Iran to build the pipeline when he visits Tehran in June. In the meantime, the Indian government has decided to set up a task force to review the progress on the proposed gas pipeline project. The task force will comprise technical, financial and legal groups. The technical group will look into gas specifications, pipeline configuration, security measures to protect the pipeline and setting up storage facilities in India. The financial group will deal with gas pricing and the quantity of gas required by India. The legal task force will examine a model India-Iran agreement and another on an overarching Iran-Pakistan-India agreement. 

Gas from Bangladesh
There is divided opinion about the proven reserves of natural gas in Bangladesh. According to British Petroleum's statistics (2003), Bangladesh's proven reserves are estimated at 12 tcf. Going by this figure, Bangladesh's natural gas reserves are limited. At present, the country's effective gas production capacity is 1,340 mmcfd and demand is about 1,420 mmcfd. Thus, the current proven reserves are sufficient to meet demand during the next 25 years. However, a recent report prepared jointly by Petrobangla and the US Geological Survey gives a different picture. 
According to this report, Bangladesh's natural gas reserves could be as high as 65 tcf. This makes Bangladesh an interesting prospect for India to meet its future natural gas needs. India has made several efforts to tap this source, but all these efforts have turned futile, mainly due to political reasons. 
In 2002, Unocal had proposed a 1,360-km long pipeline from its field at Bibiyana in Bangladesh to Delhi, through West Bengal, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, and linking up with the HBJ pipeline at an estimated cost of $1.2 billion to supply 500 mmcfd. 
Even the multilateral lending agencies had supported this move. This proposal, had it been implemented, would have earned sufficient revenue for Bangladesh to pay off the money it owes to international oil companies (including Unocal) and its trade deficit with India. Although Begum Khaleda Zia's government is positively inclined to this proposal, there is strong opposition from former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, the main opposition leader. Fearing political repercussions, the ruling coalition is hesitant to take a decision. 
The recent decision of the Tatas to invest in Bangladesh (to the tune of $2 billion) in steel, fertiliser and power sectors might have permanently sealed the fate of this project. By restricting gas supply to India, policy makers in Bangladesh may think that they can force Indian companies to invest in their country. 
Though Dhaka may not earn foreign exchange by not exporting gas to India, it may more than be compensated by increased FDI flow into that country.
In the meantime, India is looking at various means to exploit Bangladesh's natural gas resources to its advantage. Recently, ONGC put forward a proposal to the Bangladesh government expressing its willingness to jointly prospect natural gas in unexplored areas with Petrobangla, the state oil company. The Bangladesh government is yet to respond to this proposal. Companies from USA, Thailand, Malaysia and China have made similar proposals.

Gas from Myanmar
At the end of 2003, Myanmar had estimated gas reserves of 12.8 trillion cubic feet, which is just 0.36 per cent of the world's total proven natural gas reserves. And it accounts for just 0.3 per cent of the world's natural gas production. Despite these average figures India is looking at Myanmar as a potential source of natural gas. 
Though Myanmar's current natural gas production may not be impressive, its huge untapped natural gas reserves cannot be ignored by energy hungry countries like India. Myanmar's exploration efforts have been hampered by lack of capital and India is one of the countries, which want to fill this vacuum. 
Recently, ONGC Videsh Ltd and GAIL (India) Ltd have bought 20 and 10 per cent interest from the Korean Daewoo International Corporation in Myanmar's A-1 exploration block. According to Daewoo's estimate, the block has 3 tcf natural gas reserves whereas OVL's estimation puts it at 7.4 tcf. After completing seismic survey GAIL has estimated the reserves between 13.4 and 47.3 tcf. However, conservative estimates put the gas reserves ranging between 5 tcf and 13 tcf. It has not yet been decided how India will receive its share of natural gas. One possibility is of Daewoo liquefying the gas before it is supplied.
But, natural gas supply from Myanmar appears to be a distinct possibility. In recent months, substantial natural gas reserves in offshore and onshore structures, including the North-Eastern blocks of the Bay of Bengal, off the coast of Myanmar, have been discovered. In addition, sizeable quantities of natural gas reserves have been found in onshore structures in the north-eastern regions of Bangladesh and India as also onshore in Myanmar. Ever increasing demand for natural gas in India coupled with poor domestic demand in Myanmar (due to lack of industrial activity) makes transnational gas supply to India, through pipeline, one of the few options available to Myanmar to exploit its available natural resource. 
Recently, a delegation from India visited Myanmar to participate in a trilateral summit of oil ministers of Myanmar, Bangladesh and India to discuss cooperation in hydrocarbon sector with Myanmar and the import of natural gas from that country through an on-land pipeline via Bangladesh. The three ministers also issued a joint press statement in January 2005 in which the Government of Bangladesh had 'in principle' agreed to allow laying of a natural gas pipeline from Myanmar to India through Bangladesh territory. The three ministers also agreed to constitute a Techno-Commercial Working Committee (TCWC) to prepare an MoU for cooperation for implementation of Myanmar-Bangladesh-India pipeline project which will finally be signed by the three governments. 
The draft MoU was negotiated and initialled in the first meeting of the Techno-Commercial Working Group in Yangon in February. The draft MoU provides for transit through Bangladesh for gas from Myanmar to India and the right of India and Bangladesh to inject into, and tap off, their own gas using the same pipeline. Formalities are now being completed for the three ministers to jointly sign the MoU in Dhaka shortly. However, the main hitch in the project making progress is the demands by the Bangladesh government to provide hydroelectric transmission facilities and a trading corridor to Nepal and Bhutan as a precondition to allow the pipeline to be laid on its land. These are basically bilateral issues and cannot be included in a tripartite agreement. The Union ministry of external affairs has opposed these 'bilateral' demands in the draft text of the proposed MoU between three countries. But indications are that Bangladesh is trying to make most of the opportunity arising out of India's desperation to find a long-term source of natural gas. India may ultimately agree to the demands 
of Bangladesh by a bilateral agreement. 
The signing of the MoU will pave the way for launching a joint feasibility study of the Myanmar-India pipeline project. 
Of all the options available, 
the import of natural gas through pipeline from Myanmar may fructify at the earliest. 
Success or failure of this project may also decide the future of other trans national gas pipeline projects. However, import of gas from Bangladesh may be a mirage.