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Risk mitigation in project financing
Dr. CA Varadraj Bapat & Neha Parekh
BY INVITATION
Project finance is the financing of long-term infrastructure
and industrial projects based upon a complex financial structure. Project
financing plays a pivotal role in development of any economy/ sector. It is a
technique of employing a carefully engineered financing mix. A judicious
combination of debt and equity needs to be used to finance the project, and debt
is repaid using the cash-flow generated by operation of the project, rather than
the resources of the project sponsors. The financing is typically secured by all
of the project assets. Project lenders are given a lien on these assets, and are
able to assume control of a project if the borrowers have difficulties complying
with the loan terms.
Project financing discipline includes understanding the rationale for project
financing, preparation of the financial plan, assessment of the risks, designing
the financing mix, and raising the funds. In addition, one must understand the
cogent analyses of why some project financing plans have succeeded while others
have failed. A knowledge-base is required regarding the design of contractual
arrangements to support project financing; issues like the host of legislative
provisions, government and administrative constrains, public and private
infrastructure partnerships, public and private financing structures; credit
requirements of lenders, how to determine the project's borrowing capacity; how
to prepare cash flow projections and use them to measure expected rates of
return; tax and accounting considerations; and analytical techniques to validate
the project's feasibility.
Project finance is finance for a particular project, such as a mine, toll road,
railway, pipeline, power station, hospital, which is repaid from the cash-flow
of that project. Project finance is different from traditional forms of finance
because the financier principally looks to the assets and revenue of the project
in order to secure and service the loan. In contrast to an ordinary borrowing
situation, in a project financing the financier usually has little or no
recourse to the non-project assets of the borrower or the sponsors of the
project. In this situation, the credit risk associated with the borrower is not
as important as in an ordinary loan transaction; what is most important is the
identification, analysis, allocation and management of every risk associated
with the project.
Types of risks
Financiers are concerned with minimising the dangers of any events which could
have a negative impact on the financial performance of the project, in
particular, events which could result in the project not being completed on
time, on budget, or at all; the project not operating at its full capacity; the
project failing to generate sufficient revenue to service the debt; or the
project prematurely coming to an end.
Every project is unique and it is not possible to compile an exhaustive list of
risks or to rank them in order of priority. What is a major risk for one project
may be quite minor for another. In a vacuum, one can just discuss the risks that
are common to most projects and possible avenues for minimising them. However,
it is helpful to categorise the risks according to the phases of the project
within which they may arise (1) The design and construction phase; and (2) The
operation phase. It is useful to divide the project in this way when looking at
risks because the nature and the allocation of risks usually change between the
construction phase and the operation phase.
Construction phase risks
Completion risk allocation is a vital part of the risk allocation of any
project. This phase carries the greatest risk for the financier. Construction
carries the danger that the project will not be completed on time, on budget or
at all because of technical, labour, and other construction difficulties. Such
delays or cost increases may hold up loan repayments and cause interest and debt
to accumulate. They may also jeopardise contracts for the sale of the project's
output and supply contacts for raw materials.
Commonly employed mechanisms for minimising completion risk before lending takes
place include: (a) obtaining completion guarantees requiring the sponsors to pay
all debts and liquidated damages if completion does not occur by the required
date; (b) ensuring that sponsors have a significant financial interest in the
success of the project (c) requiring the project to be developed under
fixed-price, fixed-time turnkey contracts by reputed and financially sound
contractors whose performance is secured by performance bonds or guaranteed by
third parties; and (d) obtaining independent experts' reports on the design and
construction of the project.
Operation phase risks
These are business risks that may affect the cash-flow of the project by
increasing the operating costs or affecting the project's capacity to continue
to generate the quantity and quality of the planned output over the life of the
project. Operating risks are impacted by the level of experience and resources
of the operator, inefficiencies in operations or shortages in the supply of
skilled labour. The usual way for minimising operating risks before lending
takes place is to require the project to be operated by a reputable and
financially sound operator whose performance is secured by performance bonds.
Operating risks are managed during the loan period by requiring the provision of
detailed reports on operations of the project and by controlling cash-flows by
requiring the proceeds of the sale of product to be paid into a tightly
regulated proceeds account to ensure that funds are used for approved operating
costs only.
Resource/reserve risk: This is the risk that is peculiar for mining projects,
whether there are adequate inputs that can be processed or serviced to produce
sufficient return. Such resource risks are usually minimised by: (a) experts'
reports as to the existence of the inputs (e.g. detailed reservoir and
engineering reports which classify and quantify the reserves for a mining
project) or estimates of public users of the project based on surveys and other
empirical evidence (e.g. the number of passengers who will use a railway); (b)
requiring long-term supply contracts for inputs to be entered into as protection
against shortages or price fluctuations (e.g. fuel supply agreements for a power
station); (c) obtaining guarantees that there will be a minimum level of inputs
(e.g. from a government that a certain number of vehicles will use a toll road);
and (d) "take or pay" off-take contacts which require the purchaser to make
minimum payments even if the product cannot be delivered.
Political risks: This is the danger of political or financial instability in the
host country caused by events such as insurrections, strikes, and suspension of
foreign exchange, creeping expropriation and outright nationalisation. It also
includes the risk that a government may be able to avoid its contractual
obligations through sovereign immunity doctrines. Common mechanisms for
minimising political risk include: (a) requiring host country agreements and
assurances that project will not be interfered with; (b) obtaining legal
opinions as to the applicable laws and the enforceability of contracts with
government entities; (c) requiring political risk insurance to be obtained from
bodies which provide such insurance (traditionally government agencies); (d)
involving financiers from a number of different countries, national export
credit agencies and multilateral lending institutions such as a development
bank; and (e) establishing accounts in stable countries for the receipt of sale
proceeds from purchasers.
Force Majeur risks: This is the risk of events, which render the construction,
or operation of the project impossible, either temporarily (e.g. minor floods)
or permanently (e.g. complete destruction by fire). Mechanisms for minimizing
such risks include: (a) conducting due diligence as to the possibility of the
relevant risks; (b) allocating such risks to other parties as far as possible
(e.g. to the builder under the construction contract); and (c) requiring
adequate insurances which note the financiers' interests to be put in place.
Risk mitigation process
The minimisation of project risks involves three steps. The first step requires
the identification and analysis of all the risks that may bear upon the project.
The second step is the allocation of those risks among the parties. The last
step is creation of mechanisms to manage the risks. If a risk to the financiers
cannot be minimised, the financiers will need to build it into the interest rate
margin for the loan.
Step 1 - Risk identification and analysis: The project sponsors will usually
prepare a feasibility study, e.g. as to the construction and operation of a mine
or pipeline. The financiers will carefully review the study and may engage
independent expert consultants to supplement it. The matters of particular focus
will be whether the costs of the project have been properly assessed and whether
the cash-flow streams from the project are properly calculated. Some risks are
analysed using financial models to determine the project's cash flow and hence
the ability of the project to meet repayment schedules. Different scenarios will
be examined by adjusting economic variables such as inflation, interest rates,
exchange rates and prices for the inputs and output of the project. Various
classes of risk that may be identified in a project financing will be discussed
below.
Step 2 - Risk allocation: Once the risks are identified and analysed, the
parties through negotiation of the contractual framework allocate them. Ideally
a risk should be allocated to the party who is the most appropriate to bear it
(i.e. who is in the best position to manage, control and insure against it) and
who has the financial capacity to bear it. It has been observed that financiers
attempt to allocate uncontrollable risks widely and to ensure that each party
has an interest in fixing such risks. Generally, commercial risks are sought to
be allocated to the private sector and political risks to the state sector.
Step 3 - Risk management: Risks must be also managed in order to minimise the
possibility of the risk event occurring and to minimise its consequences if it
does occur. Financiers need to ensure that the greater the risks that they bear,
the more informed they are and the greater their control over the project. Since
they take security over the entire project and must be prepared to step in and
take it over if the borrower defaults. This requires the financiers to be
involved in and monitor the project closely. Imposing reporting obligations on
the borrower and controls over project accounts facilitates such risk
management. Such measures may lead to tension between the flexibility desired by
borrower and risk management mechanisms required by the financier.
Conclusion
Project financing discipline includes understanding the rationale for project
financing, preparation of the financial plan, assessment of the risks, designing
the financing mix, and raising the funds. Proper identification, analysis and
allocation of risks at the construction and the operation phases are very
important. Effective management of risks proves to a key for successful project
financing.}
(Dr. CA Varadraj Bapat is Assistant Professor, Finance Area, and Neha Parekh
is a Second Year MBA student, National Institute of Industrial Engineering.)
[May 26-June 1, 2008]
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