The ERIL Index of Cost of Project Inputs declined nominally during July, probably reflecting some lull in project investment due to intensification of monsoon. The final estimates of consolidated project outlay indices, made available after two months of provisional estimates, have tended to be higher (relative to provisional numbers). The y-o-y increase in the project cost index worked out to 2.3 per cent in July, against 0.3 per cent over corresponding period a year ago.
Production of capital goods was up by 14 per cent in April-June, against 4 per cent decline in the year-ago period. Production of cement increased 10 per cent during April-June, thrice the measure a year ago. Alloy and non-alloy steel output, however, slowed down to 2 per cent, a seventh of the rate a year ago. The WPI for manufactured products, which conceptually set the stage for project investment, increased annually 3.7 per cent in July, against around 2.8 per cent a year ago.
Computed by Economic Research India Pvt. Ltd, the ERIL Index measures project cost escalation in terms of WPI of material inputs relevant in project construction
Trends in July
The combined wholesale price index for non-metallic mineral products rose 0.5 per cent during the month due to 2 per cent price rise in bricks and tiles and marbles.
The aggregate WPI for basic metals, alloys and metal products declined by 0.2 per cent due to lower price of ferromanganese (3 per cent) and HRC, gold and gold ornaments, melting scrap, billets, ferrosilicon and plates (1 per cent each). However, the price of steel rods escalated 4 per cent, wire rods 2 per cent and pressure cooker 1 per cent.
The total WPI for machinery and machine tools inched up 0.1 per cent due to 1 per cent price rise in hydraulic equipment, battery dry cells, fans, insulators and magnets. However, the price of fibre optic cable dropped 12 per cent, cranes 2 per cent and rubber machinery one per cent.
ERIL INDEX OF COST OF PROJECT INPUTS: JULY 2014
|Wholesale Price Index: 2004-05=100|
|Index||Y-o-Y Increase (%)||Increase since March (%)|
|Non-metallic Mineral Products||168.1||12.9||2.6||0.4||0.4|
|Structural clay products||188.6||-5.3||5.5||2.3||2.4|
|Cement and lime||162.6||-5.2||1.2||-0.9||-0.4|
|Basic Metals, Alloys & Metal Products||166.8||2.8||–2.6||-0.5||-1.6|
|Machinery & Machine tools||133.9||2.4||2.0||0.5||1.1|
|Air-conditioner and refrigerators||120.3||5.6||1.2||0.8||0.2|
|Electrical machinery and batteries||138.3||2.0||2.0||-0.1||1.1|
|Electrical accessories, wires and cables||152.6||1.8||4.2||0.7||7.1|
|Transport equipment & parts||135.8||2.0||3.4||0.0||0.8|
|Composite ERIL Index for project inputs||150.3||2.3||0.3||0.0||-0.2|